This AP article says that the Iraq debate is a “sea of statistics, and I suppose that’s true, as far as it goes. But as the details of the Petraeus report begin to come out, it is clear that there is enough material there for either side of the debate to cobble together a fact-rich case. That leads to two things:

First, the report is not going to change many minds among the general public. Changed minds will come from a persuasive and trusted leader (not George Bush, unfortunately) marshalling facts to make a case.

Second, your position on what should come next in Iraq will depend mostly on how you feel about America and terrorism overall.

If you, like me, believe terrorism (in particular, nuclear terrorism) is the greatest current threat to the U.S., you think Iraq is of a piece with an overall war on terror and must conclude in a way that reflects well on the U.S. If you don’t believe terror is the most serious threat to the U.S., you think that getting out of Iraq quickly is the most important task at hand.

Therefore, the Petraeus report is like a box of ammunition available to both sides: the winner of the battle will be the one who puts that ammunition to best use.

That is: The outcome of the opinion war here will depend on the deployment of the facts, not their quantity.

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