A conversation about the forthcoming U.S. presidential election with Dr. Walid Phares

By W. Thomas Smith Jr. 

With less than two-and-a-half weeks remaining before Americans go to the polls, the question remains: For whom will America’s citizens of Middle-Eastern origins cast their votes? It’s not as cut-and-dry – pardon the cliché – as most Americans might believe. There is no single voting bloc, and no candidate who has yet garnered the necessary support among the broader Middle-East American electorate.

What we do know – according to Middle East expert and political analyst Dr. Walid Phares – is that the majority of Arab Muslims will probably vote for Sen. Barack Obama, whereas an “overwhelming majority” of Middle Eastern Christians – including a minority of Muslim reformers – will cast votes for Sen. John McCain. Phares also says voters will be influenced by Middle East regional dynamics – which are complex, fluid, and can change rapidly – between now and election day.

W. THOMAS SMITH JR:  Do we have any estimation of the numbers of Americans from the Middle East – or Americans of Middle Eastern ancestry – and how many might actually be voting in the November elections?
 
DR. WALID PHARES: There are approximately six-million or seven-million Americans of Middle Eastern descent. These numbers include large communities of Arabs, Iranians, Turks, as well as Lebanese, Copts, Assyrian-Chaldeans from Iraq and others. The possible voting bloc might realistically be around one-million which is an important number in this election.
 
SMITH: What about the majority of Americans of Middle Eastern descent or Arab-Americans? Many non-Arab-Americans believe most Arab-Americans to be Muslim.
 
PHARES: Yes, that is a common misperception. In fact, the majority of Middle Eastern Americans – particularly Arab-Americans – are Christians. About 76 percent of all Americans from Middle Eastern descent are Christians whose ancestral roots hail from populations, which have historically been persecuted in their countries of origin.

SMITH: So how might these communities vote in this election?
 
PHARES: Among the Arab Muslim voting bloc – which is 24 percent or more of all Middle Eastern Americans – the segments of voters who favor attitudes in the region opposed to U.S. policy and the war on terror, will vote for Sen. Obama.

This means that a large majority from the 24-percent group – Palestinians, Syrians, Iraqis, Egyptians – will cast their vote for the Senator from Illinois.

However, a significant number from the Arab Muslim voting bloc who are opposed to oppressive regimes in the region, such as Syrian-Americans, Iranian-Americans, and Black Africans from Darfur will most likely vote for Sen. McCain as they are opposed to the ‘cutting of deals’ with oppressive regimes in the region.

Within the aforementioned 76 percent of the Christian Middle Eastern vote, a large majority will be voting for Sen. McCain.

SMITH: Why these specific percentages and predictions?

PHARES: There a several reasons. First, Lebanese-Americans – a majority group of all Middle Eastern Americans as a single group of 1.8 million – will cast most of their votes for McCain. They will do so because of the Hezbollah threat in Lebanon and Obama’s projected policy of cutting a deal with Iran, Hezbollah’s backer.

Secondly, Egyptian Copts – Christians – will primarily vote McCain because they fear a similar deal between an Obama administration and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.

Third, Christian Iraqis such as the Chaldean community in Michigan and the Assyrian community in Illinois will in all likelihood vote overwhelmingly for McCain because of the consequences of a rapid Iraq pull-out under Obama, and what those consequences would be for Christians in that country. 

Fourth, when we consider the Southern Sudanese – African Christians: they are expected to vote for McCain because of yet another possible deal with the Khartoum regime at the expense of their kin.

So, in the final assessment – and against projections by the mainstream media – while a majority of Arab Muslim Americans will vote for Obama, an overwhelming majority of Middle East Christian Americans plus a strong minority among Arab Muslim Americans will vote for McCain.

SMITH: Which swing states do these communities have a presence in?

PHARES: Swing states where Middle Eastern Americans have a significant presence include Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Illinois, Virginia, and North Carolina.
 
SMITH: Which among these communities are better organized for this election?
 
PHARES: Many Arab and Muslim American organizations have been preparing for this showdown for more than a year now. The Obama campaign has a solid outreach effort targeting these organizations, many of which have a strategic interest in a massive change in U.S. foreign policy toward the region.

In states like Virginia, efforts by these groups have been enormous. The outreach to voters in the communities has been systematic. They project to turn more than 60,000 votes in Virginia with 48,000 in two counties only.

The Christian and Muslim-reformer vote is not as organized because its ‘causes’ and narratives are not unified. But if the leadership of these groups move together in a joint call to support their preferred candidate, McCain, they may pull nationwide about a million votes versus the other camp which can get 250,000.

So in sum, if the leadership of the U.S. Middle Eastern communities who support democratization in the region explain to its constituencies the nature of deals to be concluded with radical regimes and organizations by an Obama administration, a major shift can occur in their voting pattern, especially in the sensitive swing states.

So far this hasn’t happened.

— Visit W. Thomas Smith Jr