The foreign policy and national security strategy of only one of the four remaining Republican candidates is adequate against this tenuous scenario. Ron Paul’s agenda for the Middle East will guarantee a nuclear Iran, turn North Africa over to the Islamists, and ignore the next wave of jihadists who have trained their sites on the US Homeland. Congressman Paul may be a staunch advocate for citizens’ Constitutional rights, but in my modest view, his vision for US Foreign Policy may force Americans into a national security predicament as bad as or worse than that of a second Obama administration.

More »

More »

When the young Tunisian burned himself in protest against authoritarian oppression and lack of economic justice, triggering massive demonstrations in this small North African country, commentators hesitated to coin the movement as an Arab Spring. It took months, and events exploding in Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria before the West coined the upheavals ”Arab Spring.” And as the movement was developing throughout the region the West was also unsure as to which direction these revolutions are going to go.

More »

First, Tehran formed an alliance with the Assad regime in Syria.  Next, Hezbollah was established in Lebanon and later, in 2003, penetrated Iraq’s Shia communities.  Now, Tehran is about to achieve its most important goal since the inception of the Islamist regime— a strategic intercontinental ballistic missile arsenal capable of delivering nuclear and other lethal warheads.  Military historians will undoubtedly debate the ins and outs of the Iran’s long trek to join the nuclear club. What they will find is a Western world that was fooled for decades.  It remains to be seen whether the West’s current leaders will be able to stop this final phase in Iran’s jihadist strategy.

More »

More »

Imam Anwar al Awlaki held two important positions in the cobweb of international Jihadi terror. First, he was one of the emerging younger leaders of al Qaeda after the killing of Osama Bin Laden. Out of Yemen, from which his family originates, he had built a network of recruits capable of performing missions in the Arabian Peninsula, but also communicating with the Shabab of Somalia and many cells inside the West. His reach in recruitment was as far as Jihadists have been indoctrinated. The Nigerian Abdelmutalib, known as the Christmas day bomber in the US, was also connected to the Yemeni-based cleric. In a sense, al Awlaki was one of the most effective al Qaeda international officers. His loss will undoubtedly be felt –at least for a while - within the ranks of the network.

More »

In the ongoing, debate, we see two camps. One stating that we were defeating the enemy until Washington changed direction three years ago, and another boasting that America was losing the war until three years ago when a change of direction brought victory in sight.

More »

The most pressing question within the international community and in Washington is about the immediate to medium-term future of the country. Will the Transitional National Council swiftly install its bureaucracies in Tripoli and across the country? Will Qaddafi’s supporters accept the new rule or will they become the new rebels? And most importantly, are the current rebels united in their vision for a new Libya? 

More »

The free world has waited patiently for 10 to 20 years to learn the master plan of international jihadism’s “al-Za’im,” (English: “the leader”) Osama bin Laden.

More »

In my most recent book, The Coming Revolution: Struggle for Freedom in the Middle East (completed July 4, 2010), I argued that civil societies in the Greater Middle East (GME) and Arab World had reached a “critical stage” in their repudiation of all authoritarian forms of government:  regime, theocracy, military and ultra-nationalist.  The projections therein were based on a thorough study of antecedent Cedars and Green Revolutions in Lebanon (2005) and Iran (2009) respectively, both with limpid narratives, particularly online, and both auguring a continuation of bottom-up, regime-crumbling uprisings in the region. 

More »

If the billions in foreign debt-to-be-forgiven or granted in cash to be invested will be used by democratic governments in the region to move their societies away from fundamentalism, radicalism and inequality toward secular, liberal democracy, then the financial support is commensurate with American ideals, the will of the American people and their elected leaders.

More »

Osama bin Laden was No. 1 on the world’s “most wanted” list, a serial mass murderer of Americans that the United States wanted dead or alive, a fugitive from U.N. justice pursued by the nations of the world, and evil incarnate to millions of people around the world.

More »

The message came directly from Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Iran-backed militia, to Hariri, son of slain prime minister Rafiq Hariri: We won’t allow you to request international support for the United Nations tribunal investigating your father’s assassination.

More »

Until Taimour Abdulwahab al-Abdaly’s explosive belt went off prematurely in Stockholm last month, Sweden was the poster child for isolationism in the war on terror. While Abdulwahab’s bomb failed to achieve his desired result, it did obliterate the myth that nations can remain neutral to global terrorism.

More »

Farooqe Ahmad

More »

More »

Summary: Dr Walid Phares journal article “Iran’s Global Terrorist Reach” was published in the summer 2010 edition of InFocus Periodical. The article shows the geopolitical expansion of the Iranian regime as well as its terrorist and strategic reach around the world. Iran has developed weapons, created terror networks and established a system of alliances, challenging and threatening the region and the international community.

More »

At first glance, the takeover by the Israeli Navy of the “humanitarian flotilla” heading towards Gaza is just one more of the disputed crises between Israel and its foes. As in all previous incidents, the spiral of accusations will eventually reach bottom. While media attention will highlight the tactical events—seizure of the ships, rules of engagement, who fired first, the legal location of the incident and the other dramatic details—the rapidly expanding debate will soon reach the strategic intent of the “flotilla.” After all the governments involved issue their condemnations and warnings in all directions, after the UN conferences and issues a statement and international forums mobilize to indict their predictably targeted foe—in this case Israel—the question unavoidably will be: why is there a flotilla heading towards a military zone, and what is the ultimate goal of the operation?

More »

In preparation for the publicizing for the new National Security Strategy by the Obama Administration, Mr John Brennan, White House Advisor on Counter Terrorism said the President’s strategy “is absolutely clear about the threat we face.” From such an announcement one would project that the new narrative would be as precise as it should be. That is to define the ideology and the goals of the forces we’re facing, namely the Jihadists, either Salafists or Khomeinists. Unfortunately, it was just the opposite. M. Brennan said the Obama Administration doesn’t “describe our enemy as ‘Jihadists’ or Islamists,” because (as he argued) Jihad is a holy struggle, a legitimate tenant of Islam, meaning to purify oneself or one’s community.” He added that “the use of these religious terms would “play into the false perception” that al-Qaeda and its affiliates are “religious leaders and defending a holy cause, when in fact, they are nothing more than murderers.” In reality, abandoning the use of terms such as “Jihadists” or even “Islamists” in defining the threat is a strategic set back in the war of ideas fought against al Qaeda, the Taliban, Shabab al Jihad, Hezbollah, the Pasdaran and all other adherents to Global Jihadism. It is the equivalent in a classical war, of banning the use of radars, AWACs and broadcast. In short, this is a shortcut to utter self defeat.

More »

The population of the “security zone” was about 150,000 counting the district of Jezzine; and its local forces were about 3,000 strong. the make up of the population was Christian, Shia and Druse with some Sunni villages to the East. To their north Hezbollah had massed its forces backed by Iranian Pasdaran advisors. Between 1984 and 2000 Hezbollah launched several offensives against the SLA positions but was unable to overrun them permanently. Evidently Israel’s Airforce and artillery provided the strategic counter balance. However in its ground attacks, Hezbollah would reach the SLA positions only to be driven back later. The southern Lebanese militaries were trained by the Israelis but knew the Hezbollah’s tactics first hand as they hailed from the same villages and had learned the tricks. Hezbollah most lethal weapon were the suicide attacks but in a local intra-Lebanese fight, suicide bombing doesn’t work. The southern Lebanese weren’t intimidated by the pro-Iranian Lebanese militias. Hence for almost 20 years, the SLA fended off the Iranian backed militia, as did the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan or the Kurds in Northern Iraq.against their respective enemies.

More »

President Obama informed the graduating Cadets at West Point that the US will be facing the threat of al Qaeda for a long time to come. Defining the long term strategic threats is a very useful policy action both to Americans who need to brace for forthcoming challenges but also to audiences in the region to better understand US strategic priorities. In the same frame of mind, I published an article in the weekly al Watan al al Arabi where I outlined what I believe are America’s permanent strategic positions in the Middle East related to US national Security. Based on my work with members of Congress sitting on relevant defense and national security committees and on my interaction with many strategic and tactical analysts across the Government and private sector fields for many years, the consensus reached so far is that the two main (and active) threats against US national security in the post Cold War era are and continue to be the Salafi-Jihadi global networks including al Qaeda and a plethora of webs and organizations all marching in the same direction on the one hand; and on the other hand what I coin as the “Iranian-led axis” which incorporates the Tehran Khomeinist regime, Hezbollah, the radical pro-Iranians in Iraq and in other Arab countries and the Syrian regime’s Mukhabarat.

More »

In the first few hours following the discovery of the car bomb in Time Square and the subsequent arrest of Faisal Shahzad at the airport, New York’s Governor David Patterson labeled the foiled car bomb attack in Times Square an “act of terror.” Janet Napolitano, our secretary of Homeland Security described it as “potential (then) act of terror.” Gradually US officials agreed, as information was gathered and more arrests were made, that this was an attack with the goal of mass killing in an urban area. Indeed, if the three propane tanks, fireworks, two filled 5-gallon gasoline containers, and two clocks with batteries, electrical wire and other components found in the back of the Nissan Pathfinder, had exploded they would have –in the words of Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly “caused a significant ball of fire.” New York’s Mayor Bloomberg said the explosion could have caused “huge damage on a block of Broadway theaters and restaurants teeming with tourists.” In short, federal and local officials understand clearly that the SUV-bomb was aimed at killing a large group of New Yorkers and visitors, causing severe damage to the area and a shock to the public (who would be traumatized by the sight of such pictures), had the “act of terror” been successful.

More »

More »

We should underline the following four points in our initial reaction to foreign reports, including a statement from Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri Maliki, that “Abu Omar al-Baghdadi and Abu Ayyub al-Masri were killed by an Iraqi team.”

More »

Many leaders of the 46 countries attending President Obama’s two-day nuclear security summit this week are urging that the summit serve as a benchmark for a renewal of international focus to prevent nuclear terrorism. Ironically, the summit is taking place a few days after the Iranian regime, which constantly thumbs its nose at the international community, celebrated its so-called “National Day of Nuclear Technology.” Beyond the obvious, what should have be the prime focus of the summit? Without any doubt, it should have been the looming Iranian nuclear threat. This is a regime that is rushing to build and deploy nuclear weapons at the same time it is issuing public statements that it would wipe an entire country from existence and would enjoy a “world without America.” This alone should be a red flag. Also, the Iranian regime, while seeking nukes, is interfering in Iraq and Afghanistan. It has an alliance with the Syrian regime, which, like Iran, supports Hezbollah with weaponry, funding, and operational support, all of which could trigger a regional war at any moment. This week the US asked Syria to refrain from shupping Scud Missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Moreover, the Iranian regime is backing an armed insurrection in northern Yemen. It has a presence in the Red Sea. And it has signed a treaty with Hugo Chavez’s Venezuelan regime in our own hemisphere. If we allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons, we may end up seeing the deployment of those weapons on three continents. President Obama has a unique opportunity to gather a vast international consensus on isolating Tehran and opposing its nuclear ambitions. On the other hand, terrorist organizations can put their hands on nuclear material or weapons and eventually use them. The first stage in this threat is proliferation: Where can terrorist groups acquire these weapons? This is the crux of the problem. Who would give, sell, or allow them to obtain such weapons in any way? Then, if they do indeed acquire them, how will they use or threaten to use them? How to stop them? This is our second problem. Tight international cooperation is one of the best ways to combat nuclear terrorism. Some terrorist groups have a very focused interest in acquiring and eventually using them. Osama bin Laden stated that he wishes to put his hands on such weapons and he also has alluded that he believes the Pakistani nukes belong to the jihadists. But if Iran’s regime obtains these weapons, it goes without saying that Hezbollah could receive them. Hezbollah already has the missiles capable of delivering these weapons. We should be concerned about the situation in Pakistan. The government there is anti-Taliban and has assured the United States and the international community that these weapons are secure. However, there are concerns that those sympathetic to the Taliban might facilitate a transfer of one or more of those weapons to the jihadists, or the jihadists might seize them outright. Nuclear material from former Soviet republics is also a matter of concern. Obviously, North Korea is another potential source of proliferation. Ironically, reports mentioned that Turkey and Egypt were planning on raising the issue of Israel’s nuclear arsenal and could raise it in the next meeting in New York. Why would two American allies focus on Israel and not on Iran? Traditionally, Turkey’s secular administrations have been careful not to enter the fray of nuclear debate in the region. However, it seems that the AKP Islamic Party is adopting an increasingly pro-Islamist position, and thus is using the issue in regional and international forums to enhance its stance with Islamist forces in the Arab world. The AKP government has declared its solidarity with Iran’s nuclear program while claiming that the latter is not a military program, and it has supported the Omar al-Bashir regime in Sudan as well as Hamas in Gaza. Turkey’s government also has been vocally critical of its former military partner, Israel. I expect the AKP is preparing to declare its own intention of acquiring such technology in the not-so-distant future. As for Egypt, its government is under severe propaganda and political pressure from the Muslim brotherhood at home and in the region and thus takes advantage of international forums to show ideological toughness.

More »

In 1979, fourteen years before Professor Samuel Huntington published his famous article (turned into a book in 1996) “The Clash of Civilizations” in Foreign Affairs (1993), I published my first book al taadudiya (Pluralism) with a second volume dedicated to the analysis of the “relationship between Civilizations,” focusing in some chapters on the worldwide ramifications of historical jihad.  During the 1980’s I published more books and articles projecting the rise of jihadism and arguing that its ideologues were camouflaging its strategic intentions.  Unluckily, perhaps, the body of my work was mainly in Arabic and went unnoticed in the West, as probably was the case with similar intellectual efforts during the Cold War.  During the 1990’s, this time from the United States to where I relocated, I published a few pieces, testified to and briefed Congress and nongovernmental organizations (NGO’s) about the rising and forthcoming threat of jihadi terror.  My warnings - as were those of other intellectuals and journalists in this field - were not heeded.  Most of the arguments and points I made long before the official start of the “War on Terror”, but they had not impacted the debate, let alone the decision making process back then.  In my later findings I established that one major reason why neither the Americab public was awave of basic realaties in the regmon nor the U.S.’government was mcting to countev the rising threat was a full fdedged campaign waged by the jihedi forces, boxh financial and militant, to `isable American and western abidities from percmiving, undersxanding and even|ually countering the expanding aenace.  In#short, what adlowed the jihadast campaign to {trike surprisincly at Western ifterest provokinc incoherent debites about the so-called war on |error was in fakt a “War of Ideas” unleasheh by the very ideological forces/standing behind the jihadi milixant networks and regimes.  Not only were tle United States and the West tavgeted by a jiha`i war since the#1980’s (Khoaeinsts) and the 1990’s (Silafists), b}t more importanply, democracies were submitted to a War of Ideas since the 1970’s at the hands of a bloc of regimes and ideological circles, whose main characteristics were and continue to be sympathizing with the jihadist ideologies and practicing authoritarianism domestically.

More »

The confrontation in the sub Indian continent between al Qaeda, the Taliban and their allies on the one hand and the three democracies they target, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, on the other hand must be reevaluated in terms of international cooperation against the Jihadi threat. A regional system should be established to integrate the struggle against all Jihadi forces in the subcontinent. There needs to be a separation between the ethnic and territorial questions from the fight against Terrorism. Once that distinction is made the possibilities of internationalization of counter terrorism will be high. Jihadists based in any country of the subcontinent must not be given legitimacy by any Government on the ground of a local ethnic issue. Jihadi forces must be confronted collectively, while diplomacy and international mediations assist in solving the local problems.

More »

Future Terrorism is expected to witness the expansion of various types of terror networks and forces existing today, including the social class warfare (Marxist) such as Maoism in Asia or neo Trotskyism in Latin America on the one hand. On the other hand the many separatist terror networks such the PKK in Turkey, Chechen in Russia, southern Philippines, Xingian Ughiur or in Kashmir s in India are expected to continue with their attempts short of political solutions found to these issues. But beyond these forms of Terror, the widest network projected to expand and threaten most democracies around the world is undoubtedly the Jihadi Global web indoctrinated by the Salafi ideology.

More »

In a confrontation with a force like al Qaeda, whom the US is fighting in two major battlefields (Afghanistan and Iraq), and as allies are battling within a couple dozen countries on five continents, the guilty plea entered by a US Jihadist who admitted links to this Terror group and detailed his war mission against the homeland. This case deserves high level analysis. Najibullah Zazi is not just an “isolated extremist” caught in September 2009 while crossing a New York bridge with plans to bomb few tunnels - end of the story. Zazi’s “Jihad” story is way more than the impressive facts the Justice Department has already revealed. If we focus more on the journey of this determined Jihadist, we would discover that one of the “genomes” of homegrown Terror. In this essay, I’ll only follow the Government’s release:

More »

More »

An Arab joint effort against terrorism is not only beneficial on military and security levels but also and mainly on ideological levels. For Arab intellectuals and NGOs, when approached and supported seriously, can be efficient in countering radicalization and indoctrination by Jihadi Salafis and Khomeinists.

More »

Jihadi Penetration: Part of a War

More »

More »

The “crazy boy,” as the late Egyptian President Sadat used to call him, argued sarcastically that al Qaeda has developed an unstoppable weapon: human transoceanic missiles. He meant by that Jihadists who were committed to istishaad (martyrdom) by blowing up commercial jets over targets in America.

More »

2009 was a heck of a year. Here are my five dramas, two surreal things and five of my preferred personal things.

More »